Metz vs PAU: prediction and stats
Ligue 2Regular Season - 11Kick-off on October 30, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Stade Saint-Symphorien, Longeville-lès-Metz
The Footlab AI model makes Metz the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for PAU. The most likely score is 1-1. If Metz wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Metz vs PAU?
A very open match: only 71 Elo points separate Metz (1,866) and PAU (1,796).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Metz vs PAU
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Metz
4-2-3-1- 11P. Fall
- 8J. Deminguet
- 9G. Abuashvili
- 18B. Munongo
- 10T. Savanier
- 21J. Pandore
- 42C. Devenish
- 70B. Sarr
- 3F. Miguel
- 5J. Ruiz
- 1J. Fischer
PAU
5-3-2- 9B. Leye
- 7H. Benali
- 21J. Benet
- 6C. Fall
- 5L. Rajot
- 2T. Pouilly
- 29G. Paquiez
- 97A. Abdallah
- 23A. Briançon
- 88A. Bamba
- 1B. Maubleu
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 02:33 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Metz have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; PAU have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Saint Etienne(home) | 2-2 | Ligue 2 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | RED Star FC 93(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Rodez(home) | 4-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Annecy(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Laval(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Toulouse(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Dunkerque(home) | 2-0 | Ligue 2 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Montpellier(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Sochaux(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Rodez(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Metz win, 2 draws, 1 PAU win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2025 | PAU 2-1 Metz | Ligue 2 |
| Jan 4, 2025 | Metz 0-0 PAU | Ligue 2 |
| Apr 8, 2023 | PAU 1-1 Metz | Ligue 2 |
| Oct 1, 2022 | Metz 1-0 PAU | Ligue 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Metz score 2.2 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; PAU score 1.1 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz | 2.2 | 1.2 | 2 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| PAU | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Metz sit 5th in Ligue 2 (10 points from 7 matches) and PAU sit 10th (8 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Metz | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 10 |
| 10 | PAU | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 8 |
A question about Metz vs PAU?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Metz vs PAU?
- The Footlab AI model makes Metz the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for PAU.
- Where and when is Metz vs PAU played?
- Metz vs PAU is played on October 30, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Saint-Symphorien, in the Ligue 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.