Metz vs PAU: prediction and stats
Ligue 2Regular Season - 11Kick-off on October 30, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Stade Saint-Symphorien, Longeville-lès-Metz
The Footlab model makes Metz the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for PAU. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Metz vs PAU?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Metz (1,833) and PAU (1,751).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Metz have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; PAU have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Laval(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Grenoble(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Guingamp(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Nancy(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Dijon(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Annecy(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Real Unión(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Real Sociedad II(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Metz win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 PAU win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2025 | PAU 2-1 Metz | Ligue 2 |
| Jan 4, 2025 | Metz 0-0 PAU | Ligue 2 |
| Apr 8, 2023 | PAU 1-1 Metz | Ligue 2 |
| Oct 1, 2022 | Metz 1-0 PAU | Ligue 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Metz score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; PAU score 0.9 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| PAU | 0.9 | 2.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Metz sit 5th in Ligue 2 (5 points from 3 matches) and PAU sit 12th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Metz | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 12 | PAU | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Metz vs PAU?
- The Footlab model makes Metz the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for PAU.
- Where and when is Metz vs PAU played?
- Metz vs PAU is played on October 30, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Saint-Symphorien, in the Ligue 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.