Metz vs Rodez: prediction and stats
Ligue 2Regular Season - 5Kick-off on September 4, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Stade Saint-Symphorien, Longeville-lès-Metz
The Footlab model makes Rodez the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Metz. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Metz vs Rodez?
A very open match: only 83 Elo points separate Metz (1,836) and Rodez (1,919).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Metz have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Rodez have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Grenoble(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Guingamp(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | 1. FC Kaiserslautern(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Sochaux(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Annecy(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Laval(home) | 3-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Montpellier(away) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Toulouse(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Nimes(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Metz win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Rodez win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2025 | Metz 3-3 Rodez | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 23, 2024 | Rodez 1-3 Metz | Ligue 2 |
| Jan 31, 2023 | Metz 1-1 Rodez | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 30, 2022 | Rodez 1-4 Metz | Ligue 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Metz score 2.1 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Rodez score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metz | 2.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Rodez | 1.7 | 1.3 | 2 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Metz sit 6th in Ligue 2 (4 points from 2 matches) and Rodez sit 9th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Metz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Rodez | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Metz vs Rodez?
- The Footlab model makes Rodez the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Metz.
- Where and when is Metz vs Rodez played?
- Metz vs Rodez is played on September 4, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Saint-Symphorien, in the Ligue 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.