Millwall vs West Ham: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC)The Den, London
The Footlab model makes West Ham the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Millwall. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Millwall vs West Ham?
West Ham starts as the favourite with a 132-point Elo edge (2,074 vs 1,942).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Millwall have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; West Ham have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bristol City(away) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | QPR(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Antwerp(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Bromley(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Stevenage(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 3-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | 1. FC Magdeburg(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Rangers(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Stevenage(away) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Millwall win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 West Ham win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2012 | West Ham 2-1 Millwall | Championship |
| Sep 17, 2011 | Millwall 0-0 West Ham | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Millwall score 1.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; West Ham score 1.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall | 1.1 | 0.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
| West Ham | 1.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Millwall sit 2nd in Championship (3 points from 1 matches) and West Ham sit 10th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Millwall | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | West Ham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Millwall vs West Ham?
- The Footlab model makes West Ham the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Millwall.
- Where and when is Millwall vs West Ham played?
- Millwall vs West Ham is played on September 19, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at The Den, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.