Birmingham vs Middlesbrough: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)St Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham
The Footlab model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Birmingham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Birmingham vs Middlesbrough?
A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate Birmingham (1,919) and Middlesbrough (1,931).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Birmingham have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Middlesbrough have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sheffield Utd(away) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Swansea(away) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Barcelona(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Burton Albion(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Celtic(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Hull City(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Birmingham win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Middlesbrough win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | Birmingham 1-3 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Middlesbrough 2-1 Birmingham | Championship |
| Mar 12, 2024 | Birmingham 0-1 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Oct 21, 2023 | Middlesbrough 1-0 Birmingham | Championship |
| Jan 2, 2023 | Birmingham 1-3 Middlesbrough | Championship |
| Oct 5, 2022 | Middlesbrough 1-0 Birmingham | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Birmingham vs Middlesbrough on Mar 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Birmingham score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Middlesbrough score 1.4 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 1.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Middlesbrough | 1.4 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Birmingham sit 15th in Championship (1 points from 1 matches) and Middlesbrough sit 4th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Middlesbrough | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Birmingham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Birmingham vs Middlesbrough?
- The Footlab model makes Middlesbrough the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Birmingham.
- Where and when is Birmingham vs Middlesbrough played?
- Birmingham vs Middlesbrough is played on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at St Andrew's Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.