Milton Keynes Dons vs Stevenage: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 27Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadium mk, Milton Keynes, Buckinghamshire
The Footlab AI model makes Milton Keynes Dons the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Stevenage. The most likely score is 1-1. If Milton Keynes Dons wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,588 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Milton Keynes Dons vs Stevenage?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Milton Keynes Dons (1,878) and Stevenage (1,923).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Milton Keynes Dons vs Stevenage
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Milton Keynes Dons
3-1-4-2- 10A. Collins
- 9S. Nombe
- 24R. Wintle
- 8A. Gilbey
- 17S. Silvera
- 22I. Fullah
- 20Elijah Xavier Campbell
- 5C. Goode
- 21M. Ekpiteta
- 32J. Sanders
- 23W. Dennis
Stevenage
3-4-1-2- 9J. Magennis
- 18O. Sanderson
- 8D. Phillips
- 10D. Kemp
- 14S. Earley
- 24M. Smith
- 25Wanya Marçal
- 5C. Piergianni
- 2L. James-Wildin
- 15T. Vancooten
- 1T. Setford
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 01:43 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Milton Keynes Dons have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Stevenage have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Luton(home) | 2-1 | League One |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Reading(home) | 1-5 | League One |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Brentford U21(home) | 7-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 4-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Sep 17, 2026 | AFC Wimbledon(away) | 0-0 | League One |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Wigan(home) | 1-0 | League One |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Leicester(home) | 2-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Walsall(away) | 6-1 | EFL Trophy |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Leyton Orient(away) | 0-1 | League One |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Luton(home) | 2-1 | League One |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Milton Keynes Dons wins, 2 draws, 2 Stevenage wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2025 | Stevenage 2-1 Milton Keynes Dons | Friendlies Clubs |
| Nov 16, 2021 | Stevenage 2-1 Milton Keynes Dons | FA Cup |
| Nov 6, 2021 | Milton Keynes Dons 2-2 Stevenage | FA Cup |
| Oct 6, 2020 | Stevenage 2-3 Milton Keynes Dons | EFL Trophy |
| Aug 18, 2020 | Milton Keynes Dons 1-1 Stevenage | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 3, 2019 | Stevenage 0-3 Milton Keynes Dons | EFL Trophy |
Last archived meeting: Stevenage vs Milton Keynes Dons on Jul 26, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Milton Keynes Dons score 1.7 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Stevenage score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons | 1.7 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Stevenage | 1.6 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Milton Keynes Dons sit 23rd in League One (6 points from 8 matches) and Stevenage sit 9th (12 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Stevenage | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 12 |
| 23 | Milton Keynes Dons | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 15 | 6 |
A question about Milton Keynes Dons vs Stevenage?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Milton Keynes Dons vs Stevenage?
- The Footlab AI model makes Milton Keynes Dons the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Stevenage.
- Where and when is Milton Keynes Dons vs Stevenage played?
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Stevenage is played on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadium mk, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.