Where and when is Mineros de Fresnillo vs Real Apodaca played?

Mineros de Fresnillo vs Real Apodaca is played on August 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Unidad Deportiva Minera Fresnillo, in the Liga Premier Serie A.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Mineros de Fresnillo vs Real Apodaca: prediction and stats

Liga Premier Serie AApertura - 1Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Unidad Deportiva Minera Fresnillo, Fresnillo

Mineros de Fresnillo

Real Apodaca

The Footlab model makes Real Apodaca the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Mineros de Fresnillo. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Mineros de Fresnillo vs Real Apodaca?

Real Apodaca starts as the favourite with a 143-point Elo edge (1,996 vs 1,852).

Mineros de Fresnillo win33 %

Draw27 %

Real Apodaca win40 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mineros de Fresnillo have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Real Apodaca have 8, 3 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Mineros de Fresnillo
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Apr 19, 2026	Cimarrones(away)	1-1	Liga Premier Serie A
Apr 15, 2026	Cimarrones(home)	1-1	Liga Premier Serie A
Apr 11, 2026	Durango(away)	1-2	Liga Premier Serie A
Mar 28, 2026	Reboceros La Piedad(home)	6-2	Liga Premier Serie A
Mar 21, 2026	Colima(away)	0-0	Liga Premier Serie A

Real Apodaca
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 3, 2026	Deportiva Venados(home)	2-4	Liga Premier Serie A
Apr 30, 2026	Deportiva Venados(away)	1-1	Liga Premier Serie A
Apr 26, 2026	Inter Playa del Carmen(home)	3-1	Liga Premier Serie A
Apr 23, 2026	Inter Playa del Carmen(away)	0-0	Liga Premier Serie A
Apr 11, 2026	Correcaminos UAT II(away)	0-1	Liga Premier Serie A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Mineros de Fresnillo win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Real Apodaca win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jan 11, 2025	Mineros de Fresnillo 2-0 Real Apodaca	Liga Premier Serie A
Nov 6, 2024	Real Apodaca 2-1 Mineros de Fresnillo	Liga Premier Serie A
Jan 28, 2024	Real Apodaca 2-0 Mineros de Fresnillo	Liga Premier Serie A
Aug 26, 2023	Mineros de Fresnillo 4-2 Real Apodaca	Liga Premier Serie A

Last archived meeting: Mineros de Fresnillo vs Real Apodaca on Jan 11, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Mineros de Fresnillo score 1.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Real Apodaca score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Mineros de Fresnillo	1.7	1.2	4	10/15	8/15
Real Apodaca	1.5	1.0	7	6/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Mineros de Fresnillo sit 7th in Liga Premier Serie A (39 points from 26 matches) and Real Apodaca sit 1st (66 points from 26 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Apodaca	26	21	2	3	47	19	66
7	Mineros de Fresnillo	26	11	4	11	40	41	39

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Mineros de Fresnillo vs Real Apodaca?: The Footlab model makes Real Apodaca the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Mineros de Fresnillo.
Where and when is Mineros de Fresnillo vs Real Apodaca played?: Mineros de Fresnillo vs Real Apodaca is played on August 29, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Unidad Deportiva Minera Fresnillo, in the Liga Premier Serie A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.