Mineros de Zacatecas vs Cancún: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 12Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba, Zacatecas
The Footlab model makes Mineros de Zacatecas the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Cancún. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mineros de Zacatecas vs Cancún?
A very open match: only 38 Elo points separate Mineros de Zacatecas (1,866) and Cancún (1,904).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mineros de Zacatecas have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Cancún have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Tapatío(away) | 2-4 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Venados FC(home) | 5-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Dorados(away) | 2-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tlaxcala(home) | 3-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Correcaminos Uat(home) | 3-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Piratas(away) | 1-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Durango(home) | 2-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Monarcas(away) | 1-4 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Leones Negros UDG(home) | 0-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Monterrey(home) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Mineros de Zacatecas win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Cancún win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2026 | Cancún 4-1 Mineros de Zacatecas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 6, 2025 | Mineros de Zacatecas 0-0 Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Mineros de Zacatecas 1-1 Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Cancún 0-0 Mineros de Zacatecas | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Feb 21, 2024 | Mineros de Zacatecas 0-2 Cancún | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Nov 26, 2023 | Cancún 3-2 Mineros de Zacatecas | Liga de Expansión MX |
Last archived meeting: Cancún vs Mineros de Zacatecas on Feb 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mineros de Zacatecas score 2.2 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Cancún score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mineros de Zacatecas | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| Cancún | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mineros de Zacatecas sit 8th in Liga de Expansión MX (5 points from 3 matches) and Cancún sit 14th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 11 | 8 |
| 8 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 5 |
| 10 | Cancún | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 6 |
| 14 | Cancún | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mineros de Zacatecas vs Cancún?
- The Footlab model makes Mineros de Zacatecas the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Cancún.
- Where and when is Mineros de Zacatecas vs Cancún played?
- Mineros de Zacatecas vs Cancún is played on October 11, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.