Tapatío vs CA La Paz: prediction and stats
Liga de Expansión MXApertura - 12Kick-off on October 9, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Estadio AKRON, Zapopan
The Footlab AI model makes CA La Paz the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Tapatío. The most likely score is 1-1. If CA La Paz wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tapatío vs CA La Paz?
A very open match: only 34 Elo points separate Tapatío (1,852) and CA La Paz (1,886).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Tapatío vs CA La Paz
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Tapatío
4-3-3- 49V. Moragrega
- 57J. Hernández
- 58J. Uribe
- 44S. Zamora
- 60L. Ledesma
- 69D. Villaseca
- 53Carlo Soldati
- 46C. Hernandez
- 55S. Esparza
- 63M. Sánchez
- 45E. García
CA La Paz
3-4-2-1- 77J. Alonzo
- 5E. Torres
- 20M. García
- 25F. Illescas
- 6D. Hernández
- 13É. Alaffita
- 10M. Barragán
- 28U. Zurita
- 21C. Robles
- 16Yahir Del Aguila
- 33G. Alcalá
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 02:34 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tapatío have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; CA La Paz have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Cancún(away) | 0-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Tlaxcala(home) | 4-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Dorados(away) | 1-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Leones Negros UDG(home) | 1-3 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca(away) | 1-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Venados FC(home) | 1-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca(away) | 3-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Correcaminos Uat(home) | 3-1 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Leones Negros UDG(away) | 2-2 | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Mineros de Zacatecas(home) | 3-0 | Liga de Expansión MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Tapatío wins, 2 draws, 2 CA La Paz wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | CA La Paz 2-2 Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 3, 2025 | Tapatío 2-0 CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CA La Paz 4-1 Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Tapatío 1-0 CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Feb 2, 2024 | Tapatío 0-2 CA La Paz | Liga de Expansión MX |
| Aug 7, 2023 | CA La Paz 2-2 Tapatío | Liga de Expansión MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Tapatío score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; CA La Paz score 1.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tapatío | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| CA La Paz | 1.8 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tapatío sit 10th in Liga de Expansión MX (14 points from 10 matches) and CA La Paz sit 3rd (20 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | CA La Paz | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 13 | 20 |
| 10 | Tapatío | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 14 |
A question about Tapatío vs CA La Paz?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tapatío vs CA La Paz?
- The Footlab AI model makes CA La Paz the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Tapatío.
- Where and when is Tapatío vs CA La Paz played?
- Tapatío vs CA La Paz is played on October 9, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio AKRON, in the Liga de Expansión MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.