Modena vs Mantova: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Alberto Braglia, Modena
The Footlab model makes Modena the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Mantova. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Modena vs Mantova?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate Modena (1,863) and Mantova (1,865).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Modena have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Mantova have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Benevento(away) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Venezia(away) | 2-3 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vis Pesaro(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Trento(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Cagliari(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Carrarese(away) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lazio(away) | 2-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Athletic Carpi(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Legnago Salus(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Alcione(home) | 6-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Modena win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Mantova win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Modena 2-1 Mantova | Serie B |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Mantova 1-3 Modena | Serie B |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Modena 3-1 Mantova | Serie B |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Mantova 0-0 Modena | Serie B |
| Mar 14, 2021 | Modena 1-1 Mantova | Serie C - Girone B |
| Nov 16, 2020 | Mantova 0-0 Modena | Serie C - Girone B |
How many goals should we expect?
Modena score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Mantova score 2.0 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena | 1.3 | 1.2 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Mantova | 2.0 | 1.2 | 6 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Modena sit 4th in Serie B (3 points from 1 matches) and Mantova sit 3rd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mantova | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Modena | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Modena vs Mantova?
- The Footlab model makes Modena the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Mantova.
- Where and when is Modena vs Mantova played?
- Modena vs Mantova is played on October 31, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Alberto Braglia, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.