Montalegre vs Ponte da Barca: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group AGroup A - 6Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Dr. Diogo Alves Vaz Pereira, Montalegre
The Footlab AI model makes Montalegre the favourite at 60%, against 26% for a draw and 14% for Ponte da Barca. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,796 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Montalegre vs Ponte da Barca?
On Elo ratings, Montalegre has 1,871 points and Ponte da Barca 1,811.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Montalegre vs Ponte da Barca
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Montalegre
4-3-3- NNuno Machado
- II. Boakye
- AAngola
- TTiago Luís
- CCarlos Moura
- HHélder Almeida
- ZZ. Ngom
- BBruno Rafael Antunes Ferreira
- EEdu Machado
- DDouglão
- BBruno Pio
Ponte da Barca
Not enough data to predict the Ponte da Barca lineup.
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 01:50 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Montalegre have 3 wins, 8 draws and 4 defeats; Ponte da Barca have 2, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Bragança(away) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Maia Lidador(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Sep 5, 2026 | SC Braga B(away) | 2-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Ponte da Barca(home) | 0-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Brito(home) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Rebordosa(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Amarante(home) | 0-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Bragança(away) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Os Limianos(home) | 2-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Montalegre(away) | 0-0 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Montalegre wins, 1 draw, 1 Ponte da Barca win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2026 | Montalegre 0-0 Ponte da Barca | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 4, 2016 | Ponte da Barca 1-0 Montalegre | Taça de Portugal |
Last archived meeting: Montalegre vs Ponte da Barca on Aug 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Montalegre score 0.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Ponte da Barca score 0.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montalegre | 0.7 | 1.0 | 8 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| Ponte da Barca | 0.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 3/10 | 4/10 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Montalegre sit 8th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A (6 points from 4 matches) and Ponte da Barca sit 11th (3 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Montalegre | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | Ponte da Barca | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 3 |
A question about Montalegre vs Ponte da Barca?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Montalegre vs Ponte da Barca?
- The Footlab AI model makes Montalegre the favourite at 60%, against 26% for a draw and 14% for Ponte da Barca.
- Where and when is Montalegre vs Ponte da Barca played?
- Montalegre vs Ponte da Barca is played on October 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Dr. Diogo Alves Vaz Pereira, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.