Montalegre vs Ponte da Barca: prediction and stats
Taça de Portugal1/128-finalsKick-off on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Dr. Diogo Alves Vaz Pereira, Montalegre
The Footlab model makes Montalegre the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Ponte da Barca. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Montalegre vs Ponte da Barca?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Montalegre (1,786) and Ponte da Barca (1,775).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Montalegre have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Ponte da Barca have 2, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Brito(home) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Celoricense(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Sandinenses(away) | 0-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Mar 29, 2024 | Os Limianos(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Mar 24, 2024 | Vila Real(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Maia Lidador(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vila Meã(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Sep 8, 2019 | Merelinense(away) | 0-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 25, 2016 | Estarreja(away) | 1-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 4, 2016 | Montalegre(home) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Montalegre win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Ponte da Barca win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2016 | Ponte da Barca 1-0 Montalegre | Taça de Portugal |
Last archived meeting: Ponte da Barca vs Montalegre on Sep 4, 2016
How many goals should we expect?
Montalegre score 0.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Ponte da Barca score 0.8 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montalegre | 0.7 | 1.1 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Ponte da Barca | 0.8 | 1.0 | 3 | 2/5 | 2/5 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Montalegre vs Ponte da Barca?
- The Footlab model makes Montalegre the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Ponte da Barca.
- Where and when is Montalegre vs Ponte da Barca played?
- Montalegre vs Ponte da Barca is played on August 30, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Dr. Diogo Alves Vaz Pereira, in the Taça de Portugal.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.