Montalegre vs Vila Meã: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group AGroup A - 23Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Dr. Diogo Alves Vaz Pereira, Montalegre
The Footlab model makes Montalegre the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Vila Meã. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Montalegre vs Vila Meã?
A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate Montalegre (1,800) and Vila Meã (1,812).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Montalegre have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Vila Meã have 2, 10 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Brito(home) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Celoricense(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Sandinenses(away) | 0-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Mar 29, 2024 | Os Limianos(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Mar 24, 2024 | Vila Real(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Os Limianos(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ponte da Barca(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Anadia(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Vila Real(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Gouveia(away) | 2-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
How many goals should we expect?
Montalegre score 0.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Vila Meã score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montalegre | 0.7 | 1.1 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Vila Meã | 1.0 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Montalegre sit 3rd in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A (4 points from 2 matches) and Vila Meã sit 4th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Montalegre | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Vila Meã | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Montalegre vs Vila Meã?
- The Footlab model makes Montalegre the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Vila Meã.
- Where and when is Montalegre vs Vila Meã played?
- Montalegre vs Vila Meã is played on March 21, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Dr. Diogo Alves Vaz Pereira, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.