Montañeses vs Celaya: prediction and stats
Primera PremierRegular Season - 18Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de la Sociedad Cuauhtemoc Moctezuma (SOCUM), Orizaba
The Footlab AI model makes Celaya the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Montañeses. The most likely score is 1-1. If Celaya wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,526 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Montañeses vs Celaya?
A very open match: only 88 Elo points separate Montañeses (1,876) and Celaya (1,964).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Montañeses vs Celaya
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Montañeses
Not enough data to predict the Montañeses lineup.
Celaya
Not enough data to predict the Celaya lineup.
Computed on October 17, 2026 at 10:27 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Montañeses have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Celaya have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Chapulineros(away) | 1-2 | Primera Premier |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Tapachula(home) | 2-1 | Primera Premier |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Pioneros de Cancún(away) | 1-2 | Primera Premier |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Inter Playa del Carmen(home) | 3-2 | Primera Premier |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Celaya(away) | 1-2 | Primera Premier |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Racing de Veracruz(away) | 1-2 | Primera Premier |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Jaguares de Chiapas(home) | 0-1 | Primera Premier |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Deportiva Venados(away) | 2-2 | Primera Premier |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Montañeses(home) | 2-1 | Primera Premier |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Chapulineros(away) | 1-1 | Primera Premier |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Montañeses win, 0 draws, 2 Celaya wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Celaya 2-1 Montañeses | Primera Premier |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Montañeses 5-1 Celaya | Liga Premier Serie A |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Celaya 1-0 Montañeses | Liga Premier Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Montañeses score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Celaya score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montañeses | 1.7 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Celaya | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Montañeses sit 9th in Primera Premier (10 points from 8 matches) and Celaya sit 5th (13 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Celaya | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 13 |
| 9 | Montañeses | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 15 | 10 |
A question about Montañeses vs Celaya?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Montañeses vs Celaya?
- The Footlab AI model makes Celaya the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Montañeses.
- Where and when is Montañeses vs Celaya played?
- Montañeses vs Celaya is played on January 31, 2027 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de la Sociedad Cuauhtemoc Moctezuma (SOCUM), in the Primera Premier.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
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