Montpellier vs Nantes: prediction and stats
Ligue 2Regular Season - 14Kick-off on December 4, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98, Montpellier
The Footlab model makes Montpellier the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Nantes. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Montpellier vs Nantes?
A very open match: only 79 Elo points separate Montpellier (1,910) and Nantes (1,831).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Montpellier have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Nantes have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Dunkerque(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Nancy(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dijon(home) | 1-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Rodez(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Clermont Foot(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rodez(home) | 2-5 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Laval(away) | 1-2 | Ligue 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | RED Star FC 93(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 2 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Al Wakrah(home) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Le Mans(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Montpellier win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Nantes win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2025 | Nantes 3-0 Montpellier | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Montpellier 1-3 Nantes | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 26, 2024 | Montpellier 1-1 Nantes | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Nantes 2-0 Montpellier | Ligue 1 |
| May 20, 2023 | Nantes 0-3 Montpellier | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 15, 2023 | Montpellier 0-3 Nantes | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: Nantes vs Montpellier on May 17, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Montpellier score 1.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Nantes score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier | 1.7 | 1.0 | 7 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Nantes | 1.1 | 1.5 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Montpellier sit 2nd in Ligue 2 (7 points from 3 matches) and Nantes sit 18th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Montpellier | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 18 | Nantes | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Montpellier vs Nantes?
- The Footlab model makes Montpellier the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Nantes.
- Where and when is Montpellier vs Nantes played?
- Montpellier vs Nantes is played on December 4, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98, in the Ligue 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.