Monza vs Parma: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 36Kick-off on May 16, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC)U-Power Stadium, Monza
The Footlab model makes Monza the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Parma. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Monza vs Parma?
A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Monza (1,960) and Parma (1,939).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Monza have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Parma have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Inter(away) | 1-4 | Serie A |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Avellino(home) | 3-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Padova(home) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Aris Thessalonikis(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Galatasaray(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cagliari(home) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Catania(home) | 2-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sampdoria(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Iraklis 1908(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Arezzo(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Monza win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Parma win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | Monza 1-1 Parma | Serie A |
| Dec 28, 2024 | Parma 2-1 Monza | Serie A |
| Mar 2, 2022 | Monza 1-1 Parma | Serie B |
| Oct 17, 2021 | Parma 0-0 Monza | Serie B |
How many goals should we expect?
Monza score 2.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Parma score 0.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monza | 2.0 | 1.5 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Parma | 0.8 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Monza sit 19th in Serie A (0 points from 1 matches) and Parma sit 15th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Parma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 | Monza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Monza vs Parma?
- The Footlab model makes Monza the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Parma.
- Where and when is Monza vs Parma played?
- Monza vs Parma is played on May 16, 2027 at 04:30 PM (UTC) at U-Power Stadium, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.