Where and when is Moravia Morawica vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg played?

Moravia Morawica vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg is played on October 24, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the III Liga - Group 4.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Moravia Morawica vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg: prediction and stats

III Liga - Group 4Group IV - 14Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)

Moravia Morawica

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

The Footlab model makes Moravia Morawica the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Siarka Tarnobrzeg. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Moravia Morawica vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?

A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Moravia Morawica (1,709) and Siarka Tarnobrzeg (1,714).

Moravia Morawica win42 %

Draw24 %

Siarka Tarnobrzeg win34 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 9 matches in all competitions, Moravia Morawica have 2 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Siarka Tarnobrzeg have 1, 5 and 9.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Moravia Morawica
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Wisła Kraków II(away)	0-1	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 19, 2026	Naprzód(home)	4-2	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 15, 2026	Chełmianka Chełm(home)	0-3	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 8, 2026	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów(away)	2-0	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 2, 2026	Wiślanie Jaśkowice(home)	0-2	III Liga - Group 4

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Sokół Kolb.(away)	0-2	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 19, 2026	Jarosław(home)	1-3	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 15, 2026	Busko-Zdroj(away)	4-1	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 8, 2026	Czarni Połaniec(home)	0-1	III Liga - Group 4
Aug 2, 2026	Hetman Zamosc(away)	1-1	III Liga - Group 4

How many goals should we expect?

Moravia Morawica score 1.1 and concede 2.7 goals per match over their last 9; Siarka Tarnobrzeg score 1.4 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Moravia Morawica	1.1	2.7	1	3/9	6/9
Siarka Tarnobrzeg	1.4	2.0	1	11/15	8/15

Over the last 9 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Moravia Morawica sit 11th in III Liga - Group 4 (6 points from 5 matches) and Siarka Tarnobrzeg sit 16th (4 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
11	Moravia Morawica	5	2	0	3	6	8	6
16	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	5	1	1	3	6	8	4

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Moravia Morawica vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg?: The Footlab model makes Moravia Morawica the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Siarka Tarnobrzeg.
Where and when is Moravia Morawica vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg played?: Moravia Morawica vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg is played on October 24, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the III Liga - Group 4.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.