Morecambe vs AFC Telford United: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 5Kick-off on August 28, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Mazuma Stadium, Morecambe, Lancashire
The Footlab model makes AFC Telford United the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Morecambe. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Morecambe vs AFC Telford United?
AFC Telford United starts as the favourite with a 165-point Elo edge (1,826 vs 1,661).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Morecambe have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; AFC Telford United have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Radcliffe(away) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | South Shields(home) | 0-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Harborough Town(away) | 0-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Spennymoor Town(home) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Barrow(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hednesford Town(home) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Merthyr Town(away) | 2-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Worksop Town(away) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Brackley Town(home) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tamworth(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
How many goals should we expect?
Morecambe score 1.1 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; AFC Telford United score 1.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morecambe | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| AFC Telford United | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Morecambe sit 24th in National League - North (1 points from 4 matches) and AFC Telford United sit 22nd (2 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | AFC Telford United | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 2 |
| 24 | Morecambe | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Morecambe vs AFC Telford United?
- The Footlab model makes AFC Telford United the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Morecambe.
- Where and when is Morecambe vs AFC Telford United played?
- Morecambe vs AFC Telford United is played on August 28, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Mazuma Stadium, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.