Merthyr Town vs Chorley: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 5Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Penydarren Park, Merthyr Tydfil
The Footlab model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 27% for Chorley. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Merthyr Town vs Chorley?
A very open match: only 88 Elo points separate Merthyr Town (1,869) and Chorley (1,781).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Merthyr Town have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Chorley have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | South Shields(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | AFC Telford United(home) | 2-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Spennymoor Town(away) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hednesford Town(home) | 2-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Worcester City(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Scarborough Athletic(home) | 2-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Marine(away) | 2-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | South Shields(away) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chester(home) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Trafford(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Merthyr Town win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Chorley win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Merthyr Town 2-3 Chorley | National League - North |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Chorley 0-2 Merthyr Town | National League - North |
Last archived meeting: Merthyr Town vs Chorley on Feb 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Merthyr Town score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Chorley score 0.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merthyr Town | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Chorley | 0.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Merthyr Town sit 12th in National League - North (5 points from 4 matches) and Chorley sit 9th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Chorley | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| 12 | Merthyr Town | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Merthyr Town vs Chorley?
- The Footlab model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 27% for Chorley.
- Where and when is Merthyr Town vs Chorley played?
- Merthyr Town vs Chorley is played on August 29, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Penydarren Park, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.