Casa Pia vs Guimaraes: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 22Kick-off on February 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Nacional, Jamor, Oeiras
The Footlab AI model makes Guimaraes the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Casa Pia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Guimaraes wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 3,888 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 30, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Casa Pia vs Guimaraes?
Guimaraes starts as the favourite with a 108-point Elo edge (2,092 vs 1,984).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Casa Pia vs Guimaraes
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Casa Pia
4-2-3-1- 90Cassiano
- 11M. El Boukammiri
- 80L. Ofori
- 77B. Pauwels
- 70João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
- 16Silvi
- 18Geraldes
- 75Pedro Rosas
- 43David Sousa
- 3Kaly
- 1P. Sequeira
Guimaraes
4-2-3-1- 9A. Jakupovic
- 7O. Camara
- 20Samu
- 8Gonçalo Nogueira
- 11Gustavo
- 16Beni
- 13João Mendes
- 23T. Strata
- 21T. Borevković
- 5A. Sidibé
- 98Lucas Furtado
Computed on October 30, 2026 at 11:45 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Casa Pia have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Guimaraes have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Alpendorada(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | FC Porto(home) | 1-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 5-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Recreativa de Lamelas(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Benfica(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Academico Viseu(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Casa Pia wins, 3 draws, 1 Guimaraes win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Guimaraes 0-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| May 11, 2026 | Guimaraes 0-1 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Casa Pia 0-0 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Guimaraes 1-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Casa Pia 1-1 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Guimaraes 0-2 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Casa Pia score 0.8 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Guimaraes score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | 0.8 | 1.7 | 5 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
| Guimaraes | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Casa Pia sit 16th in Primeira Liga (7 points from 9 matches) and Guimaraes sit 13th (8 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Guimaraes | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 7 |
A question about Casa Pia vs Guimaraes?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Casa Pia vs Guimaraes?
- The Footlab AI model makes Guimaraes the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for Casa Pia.
- Where and when is Casa Pia vs Guimaraes played?
- Casa Pia vs Guimaraes is played on February 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Nacional, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.