Moreland City vs Essendon Royals SC: prediction and stats
Victoria Premier League 2Regular Season - 26Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC)CB Smith Reserve Pitch 3, Fawkner
The Footlab model makes Essendon Royals SC the favourite at 85%, against 9% for a draw and 6% for Moreland City. The most likely score is 1-4.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Moreland City vs Essendon Royals SC?
Essendon Royals SC is a heavy favourite: 1,747 Elo points against 1,433 — a 314-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Moreland City have 1 wins, 4 draws and 10 defeats; Essendon Royals SC have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Nunawading(home) | 2-6 | Victoria Premier League 2 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Whittlesea United(away) | 1-7 | Victoria Premier League 2 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Box Hill(home) | 2-2 | Victoria Premier League 2 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kingston City(home) | 3-5 | Victoria Premier League 2 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bayside Argonauts(away) | 0-1 | Victoria Premier League 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Keilor Park(home) | 1-4 | Victoria Premier League 2 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Eastern Lions(away) | 3-1 | Victoria Premier League 2 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Altona City(home) | 3-2 | Victoria Premier League 2 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Kingston City(home) | 4-2 | Victoria Premier League 2 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Whittlesea United(away) | 1-1 | Victoria Premier League 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Moreland City win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Essendon Royals SC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | Essendon Royals SC 3-1 Moreland City | Victoria Premier League 2 |
Last archived meeting: Essendon Royals SC vs Moreland City on May 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Moreland City score 1.4 and concede 3.1 goals per match over their last 15; Essendon Royals SC score 2.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 89% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreland City | 1.4 | 3.1 | 1 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Essendon Royals SC | 2.7 | 1.5 | 1 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Moreland City sit 14th in Victoria Premier League 2 (13 points from 25 matches) and Essendon Royals SC sit 3rd (47 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Essendon Royals SC | 25 | 15 | 2 | 8 | 61 | 40 | 47 |
| 14 | Moreland City | 25 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 32 | 71 | 13 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Moreland City vs Essendon Royals SC?
- The Footlab model makes Essendon Royals SC the favourite at 85%, against 9% for a draw and 6% for Moreland City.
- Where and when is Moreland City vs Essendon Royals SC played?
- Moreland City vs Essendon Royals SC is played on August 29, 2026 at 05:00 AM (UTC) at CB Smith Reserve Pitch 3, in the Victoria Premier League 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 89% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.