Mornar vs Dečić: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 18Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion SRC Topolica, Bar
The Footlab model makes Mornar the favourite at 48%, against 31% for a draw and 21% for Dečić. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mornar vs Dečić?
A very open match: only 74 Elo points separate Mornar (1,619) and Dečić (1,545).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mornar have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Dečić have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Buducnost Podgorica(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Mladost DG(away) | 3-2 | First League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Arsenal Tivat(home) | 0-0 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Jezero(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Atlètic Club d'Escaldes(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Otrant-Olympic(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Bokelj(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Buducnost Podgorica(away) | 2-0 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Arsenal Tivat(home) | 0-0 | First League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | FK Liepaja(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Mornar win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Dečić win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2026 | Dečić 0-1 Mornar | Cup |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Mornar 1-0 Dečić | First League |
| Feb 25, 2026 | Dečić 0-0 Mornar | First League |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Mornar 1-0 Dečić | First League |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Dečić 2-1 Mornar | First League |
| May 29, 2025 | Mornar 0-1 Dečić | Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Mornar score 1.3 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Dečić score 0.9 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mornar | 1.3 | 0.7 | 8 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Dečić | 0.9 | 0.8 | 7 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mornar sit 2nd in First League (8 points from 4 matches) and Dečić sit 1st (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dečić | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Mornar | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mornar vs Dečić?
- The Footlab model makes Mornar the favourite at 48%, against 31% for a draw and 21% for Dečić.
- Where and when is Mornar vs Dečić played?
- Mornar vs Dečić is played on December 5, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion SRC Topolica, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.