Mortágua vs AD Nogueirense: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 21Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo da Gandarada, Mortágua
The Footlab model makes Mortágua the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for AD Nogueirense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mortágua vs AD Nogueirense?
A very open match: only 61 Elo points separate Mortágua (1,816) and AD Nogueirense (1,755).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mortágua have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; AD Nogueirense have 0, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sertanense(away) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nazarenos(home) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Eléctrico(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Os Marialvas(home) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Fazendense(away) | 3-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Sertanense(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 9, 2018 | Sanjoanense(away) | 0-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 3, 2017 | Gafanha(home) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 4, 2016 | Mortágua(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Mortágua win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 AD Nogueirense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 4, 2016 | Mortágua 1-0 AD Nogueirense | Taça de Portugal |
Last archived meeting: Mortágua vs AD Nogueirense on Sep 4, 2016
How many goals should we expect?
Mortágua score 1.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; AD Nogueirense score 0.8 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortágua | 1.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| AD Nogueirense | 0.8 | 1.6 | 0 | 2/5 | 1/5 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mortágua sit 1st in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (6 points from 2 matches) and AD Nogueirense sit 9th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mortágua | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | AD Nogueirense | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mortágua vs AD Nogueirense?
- The Footlab model makes Mortágua the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for AD Nogueirense.
- Where and when is Mortágua vs AD Nogueirense played?
- Mortágua vs AD Nogueirense is played on March 7, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo da Gandarada, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.