Fátima vs UD da Serra: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 21Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Papa Francisco, Fátima
The Footlab AI model makes UD da Serra the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Fátima. The most likely score is 1-1. If UD da Serra wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,623 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fátima vs UD da Serra?
A very open match: only 79 Elo points separate Fátima (1,817) and UD da Serra (1,896).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Fátima vs UD da Serra
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Fátima
Not enough data to predict the Fátima lineup.
UD da Serra
Not enough data to predict the UD da Serra lineup.
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 12:39 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fátima have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; UD da Serra have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Nazarenos(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Vinhais(home) | 4-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Os Marialvas(away) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Benfica Castelo Branco(home) | 3-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | O Elvas(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Amora(away) | 4-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Mortágua(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | AD Nogueirense(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Uniao de Pombal(home) | 5-0 | Taça de Portugal |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Fátima wins, 1 draw, 1 UD da Serra win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | UD da Serra 0-0 Fátima | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Fátima 0-2 UD da Serra | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: UD da Serra vs Fátima on Jan 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fátima score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; UD da Serra score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fátima | 1.7 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| UD da Serra | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fátima sit 9th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (4 points from 4 matches) and UD da Serra sit 5th (8 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | UD da Serra | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| 9 | Fátima | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 4 |
A question about Fátima vs UD da Serra?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fátima vs UD da Serra?
- The Footlab AI model makes UD da Serra the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Fátima.
- Where and when is Fátima vs UD da Serra played?
- Fátima vs UD da Serra is played on March 7, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Papa Francisco, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.