Fátima vs UD da Serra: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 21Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Papa Francisco, Fátima
The Footlab model makes Fátima the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for UD da Serra. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fátima vs UD da Serra?
A very open match: only 22 Elo points separate Fátima (1,803) and UD da Serra (1,825).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fátima have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; UD da Serra have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atlético Malveira(home) | 5-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | O Elvas(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Benfica Castelo Branco(home) | 4-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Eléctrico(away) | 3-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(home) | 2-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FC Alverca II(home) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Naval 1893(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Samora Correir(away) | 2-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Peniche(home) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital(away) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Fátima win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 UD da Serra win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | UD da Serra 0-0 Fátima | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Fátima 0-2 UD da Serra | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: UD da Serra vs Fátima on Jan 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fátima score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; UD da Serra score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fátima | 1.5 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| UD da Serra | 1.4 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fátima sit 3rd in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (4 points from 2 matches) and UD da Serra sit 2nd (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | UD da Serra | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Fátima | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fátima vs UD da Serra?
- The Footlab model makes Fátima the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for UD da Serra.
- Where and when is Fátima vs UD da Serra played?
- Fátima vs UD da Serra is played on March 7, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Papa Francisco, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.