Morton vs Dunfermline: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Cappielow Park, Greenock
The Footlab model makes Dunfermline the favourite at 48%, against 30% for a draw and 22% for Morton. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Morton vs Dunfermline?
Dunfermline starts as the favourite with a 166-point Elo edge (1,787 vs 1,621).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Morton have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Dunfermline have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Arbroath(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stenhousemuir(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Partick(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Inverness CT(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 18, 2026 | ST Johnstone(away) | 0-3 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Livingston(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ross County(home) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ayr Utd(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Inverness CT(away) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Jul 26, 2026 | ST Mirren(away) | 1-0 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Morton win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Dunfermline win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Dunfermline 3-1 Morton | Championship |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Morton 2-0 Dunfermline | Championship |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Dunfermline 1-0 Morton | Championship |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Morton 0-0 Dunfermline | Championship |
| May 2, 2025 | Morton 2-0 Dunfermline | Championship |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Dunfermline 2-1 Morton | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Morton score 0.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Dunfermline score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morton | 0.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Dunfermline | 1.4 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Morton sit 9th in Championship (0 points from 3 matches) and Dunfermline sit 8th (2 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Dunfermline | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| 9 | Morton | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Morton vs Dunfermline?
- The Footlab model makes Dunfermline the favourite at 48%, against 30% for a draw and 22% for Morton.
- Where and when is Morton vs Dunfermline played?
- Morton vs Dunfermline is played on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Cappielow Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.