Mosconia vs Ceares: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Marqués de La Vega de Anzo, Grado, Asturias
The Footlab model makes Mosconia the favourite at 57%, against 26% for a draw and 17% for Ceares. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mosconia vs Ceares?
A very open match: only 66 Elo points separate Mosconia (1,777) and Ceares (1,711).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mosconia have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Ceares have 5, 1 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Real Avilés(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Covadonga(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 17, 2026 | Covadonga(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 10, 2026 | Navarro(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 3, 2026 | Gijón Industrial(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Siero(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 3, 2026 | Navarro(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Gijón Industrial(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Praviano(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Lenense(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Mosconia win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Ceares win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | Mosconia 1-0 Ceares | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Ceares 0-0 Mosconia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Mosconia 2-1 Ceares | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Ceares 1-1 Mosconia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Jan 31, 2021 | Mosconia 0-0 Ceares | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Dec 23, 2020 | Ceares 1-0 Mosconia | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Mosconia score 0.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Ceares score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mosconia | 0.8 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Ceares | 1.1 | 1.7 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mosconia sit 5th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 (56 points from 34 matches) and Ceares sit 8th (45 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mosconia | 34 | 16 | 8 | 10 | 47 | 27 | 56 |
| 8 | Ceares | 34 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 39 | 40 | 45 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mosconia vs Ceares?
- The Footlab model makes Mosconia the favourite at 57%, against 26% for a draw and 17% for Ceares.
- Where and when is Mosconia vs Ceares played?
- Mosconia vs Ceares is played on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Marqués de La Vega de Anzo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.