Caudal vs Sporting Gijón II: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Hermanos Antuña, Mieres del Camino
The Footlab model makes Caudal the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Sporting Gijón II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caudal vs Sporting Gijón II?
A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Caudal (1,903) and Sporting Gijón II (1,925).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caudal have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Sporting Gijón II have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Atlético Central(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Atlético Central(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Covadonga(away) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 31, 2026 | Covadonga(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 24, 2026 | Sporting Gijón II(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Real Avilés(away) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Llanera(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Cultural Leonesa II(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Palencia CF(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Marino de Luanco(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Caudal win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Sporting Gijón II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Sporting Gijón II 1-2 Caudal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 17, 2026 | Caudal 0-0 Sporting Gijón II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Feb 15, 2026 | Sporting Gijón II 3-1 Caudal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Caudal 3-2 Sporting Gijón II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Sporting Gijón II 2-0 Caudal | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 8, 2024 | Caudal 3-0 Sporting Gijón II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Sporting Gijón II vs Caudal on May 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Caudal score 1.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Sporting Gijón II score 1.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caudal | 1.7 | 0.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Sporting Gijón II | 1.9 | 1.3 | 7 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caudal sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 (66 points from 34 matches) and Sporting Gijón II sit 3rd (67 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sporting Gijón II | 34 | 19 | 10 | 5 | 79 | 29 | 67 |
| 4 | Caudal | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 59 | 39 | 66 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caudal vs Sporting Gijón II?
- The Footlab model makes Caudal the favourite at 37%, against 26% for a draw and 37% for Sporting Gijón II.
- Where and when is Caudal vs Sporting Gijón II played?
- Caudal vs Sporting Gijón II is played on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Hermanos Antuña, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.