Moss vs Haugesund: prediction and stats
1. DivisionRegular Season - 22Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Melløs Stadion, Moss
The Footlab model makes Haugesund the favourite at 53%, against 19% for a draw and 28% for Moss. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Moss vs Haugesund?
Haugesund starts as the favourite with a 134-point Elo edge (1,863 vs 1,730).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Moss have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Haugesund have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lørenskog(away) | 3-0 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bryne(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 10, 2026 | ODD Ballklubb(home) | 3-3 | 1. Division |
| Aug 2, 2026 | hodd(away) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Raufoss(home) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Vard(away) | 4-3 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kongsvinger(away) | 2-3 | 1. Division |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Raufoss(home) | 7-2 | 1. Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Ranheim(away) | 4-3 | 1. Division |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Bryne(home) | 1-2 | 1. Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Moss win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Haugesund win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2026 | Haugesund 3-1 Moss | 1. Division |
| Feb 16, 2025 | Haugesund 1-1 Moss | Friendlies Clubs |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Haugesund 2-0 Moss | Eliteserien |
| Dec 5, 2024 | Moss 0-0 Haugesund | Eliteserien |
How many goals should we expect?
Moss score 1.7 and concede 2.4 goals per match over their last 15; Haugesund score 3.3 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 84% probability of over 2.5 goals and 81% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moss | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1 | 12/15 | 14/15 |
| Haugesund | 3.3 | 2.1 | 2 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Moss sit 13th in 1. Division (18 points from 18 matches) and Haugesund sit 3rd (37 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Haugesund | 18 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 57 | 36 | 37 |
| 3 | Haugesund | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 34 | 18 | 25 |
| 7 | Moss | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 22 | 17 |
| 13 | Moss | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 29 | 41 | 18 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Moss vs Haugesund?
- The Footlab model makes Haugesund the favourite at 53%, against 19% for a draw and 28% for Moss.
- Where and when is Moss vs Haugesund played?
- Moss vs Haugesund is played on September 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Melløs Stadion, in the 1. Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 84% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.