Match

Móstoles vs Fuenlabrada: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Group 7 - 19Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de El Soto, Móstoles

MóstolesFuenlabrada

The Footlab AI model makes Móstoles the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Fuenlabrada. The most likely score is 1-1. If Móstoles wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,606 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 17, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Móstoles vs Fuenlabrada?

A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Móstoles (1,781) and Fuenlabrada (1,791).

39%27%34%
Móstoles winDrawFuenlabrada win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Móstoles vs Fuenlabrada

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Móstoles

Not enough data to predict the Móstoles lineup.

Fuenlabrada

4-3-3
  1. AA. Damar
  2. MManu Garrido
  3. CC. Omoigui
  1. AAntonio Moyano
  2. FFer Ruiz
  3. SSergio Aguza
  1. ÁÁlvaro García
  2. BB. Ouacharaf
  3. 14Álvaro Barbosa
  4. DDavid Alba
  1. LLucas Díaz

Computed on October 17, 2026 at 09:01 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Móstoles have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Fuenlabrada have 4, 6 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Móstoles
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Unión Adarve(away)1-2Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Oct 4, 2026Leganés II(home)1-1Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Sep 27, 2026Torrejón(away)1-0Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Sep 20, 2026Cala Pozuelo(home)1-0Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Sep 13, 2026Fuenlabrada(away)3-1Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Fuenlabrada
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 17, 2026Pozuelo Alarcón(home)0-1Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Oct 11, 2026Parla Escuela(away)2-2Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Oct 4, 2026Villanueva Pardillo(home)1-0Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Sep 27, 2026Unión Adarve(away)2-2Tercera División RFEF - Group 7
Sep 19, 2026Torrejón(home)3-1Tercera División RFEF - Group 7

What does the head-to-head say?

In the last meeting: 1 Móstoles win, 0 draws, 0 Fuenlabrada wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Sep 13, 2026Fuenlabrada 1-3 MóstolesTercera División RFEF - Group 7

Last archived meeting: Fuenlabrada vs Móstoles on Sep 13, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Móstoles score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Fuenlabrada score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Móstoles1.01.338/154/15
Fuenlabrada1.11.348/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Móstoles sit 6th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 (11 points from 6 matches) and Fuenlabrada sit 7th (9 points from 6 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
6Móstoles63217411
7Fuenlabrada6231989

A question about Móstoles vs Fuenlabrada?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Móstoles vs Fuenlabrada?
The Footlab AI model makes Móstoles the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Fuenlabrada.
Where and when is Móstoles vs Fuenlabrada played?
Móstoles vs Fuenlabrada is played on January 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de El Soto, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 7.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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