Motherwell vs Aberdeen: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 32Kick-off on April 3, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Fir Park, Motherwell
The Footlab AI model makes Motherwell the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Aberdeen. The most likely score is 1-1. If Motherwell wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 3,024 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 22, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Motherwell vs Aberdeen?
A very open match: only 15 Elo points separate Motherwell (1,844) and Aberdeen (1,829).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Motherwell vs Aberdeen
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Motherwell
4-2-3-1- 47S. Palmer-Houlden
- 71J. Hodge
- 8L. Fadinger
- 11A. Lowry
- 18Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise
- 19I. Said
- 45M. Emmanuel
- 5M. Moormann
- 7T. Sparrow
- 2S. O'Donnell
- 1A. Paulsen
Aberdeen
4-2-3-1- 15K. Nisbet
- 25C. Ronan
- 32A. Aremu
- 8B. Lyons
- 20T. Olusanya
- 40F. Marshall
- 28C. Cadden
- 24N. Guinness-Walker
- 5M. Knoester
- 23L. Mayo
- 27M. Müller
Computed on October 22, 2026 at 10:44 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Motherwell have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Aberdeen have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Kilmarnock(away) | 2-3 | Premiership |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Celtic(home) | 0-2 | Premiership |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Dundee(away) | 1-2 | Premiership |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Aberdeen(home) | 0-4 | Premiership |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Rangers(away) | 0-1 | Premiership |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | ST Mirren(home) | 3-1 | Premiership |
| Oct 11, 2026 | ST Johnstone(home) | 0-1 | Premiership |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Dunfermline(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Hibernian(away) | 1-1 | Premiership |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Motherwell(away) | 4-0 | Premiership |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Motherwell wins, 1 draw, 2 Aberdeen wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | Motherwell 0-4 Aberdeen | Premiership |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Aberdeen 2-0 Motherwell | FA Cup |
| Feb 15, 2026 | Motherwell 2-0 Aberdeen | Premiership |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Aberdeen 1-1 Motherwell | Premiership |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Motherwell 2-0 Aberdeen | Premiership |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Aberdeen 0-1 Motherwell | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Motherwell vs Aberdeen on Sep 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Motherwell score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Aberdeen score 1.8 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell | 1.3 | 1.7 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Aberdeen | 1.8 | 0.9 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Motherwell sit 10th in Premiership (8 points from 9 matches) and Aberdeen sit 7th (11 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Aberdeen | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| 10 | Motherwell | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 8 |
A question about Motherwell vs Aberdeen?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Motherwell vs Aberdeen?
- The Footlab AI model makes Motherwell the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Aberdeen.
- Where and when is Motherwell vs Aberdeen played?
- Motherwell vs Aberdeen is played on April 3, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Fir Park, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.