Heart Of Midlothian vs Celtic: prediction and stats
PremiershipRegular Season - 15Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh
The Footlab model makes Celtic the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Heart Of Midlothian. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Heart Of Midlothian vs Celtic?
Celtic starts as the favourite with a 127-point Elo edge (2,184 vs 2,057).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Heart Of Midlothian have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Celtic have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Rapid Vienna(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Inverness CT(home) | 6-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Dundee Utd(home) | 4-0 | Premiership |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Benfica(away) | 1-6 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Lask Linz(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Dundee Utd(away) | 4-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Kilmarnock(away) | 5-1 | Premiership |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Dundee(home) | 1-0 | Premiership |
| Jul 25, 2026 | AC Milan(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Heart Of Midlothian win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Celtic win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Celtic 3-1 Heart Of Midlothian | Premiership |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian 2-2 Celtic | Premiership |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Celtic 1-2 Heart Of Midlothian | Premiership |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Heart Of Midlothian 3-1 Celtic | Premiership |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Celtic 3-0 Heart Of Midlothian | Premiership |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Heart Of Midlothian 1-4 Celtic | Premiership |
Last archived meeting: Celtic vs Heart Of Midlothian on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Heart Of Midlothian score 1.8 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Celtic score 2.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heart Of Midlothian | 1.8 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Celtic | 2.7 | 1.2 | 3 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Heart Of Midlothian sit 5th in Premiership (3 points from 2 matches) and Celtic sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Heart Of Midlothian vs Celtic?
- The Footlab model makes Celtic the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Heart Of Midlothian.
- Where and when is Heart Of Midlothian vs Celtic played?
- Heart Of Midlothian vs Celtic is played on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Tynecastle Park, in the Premiership.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.