Moyola Park vs Ards: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 8Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Mill Meadow, Caisleán Dhásain
The Footlab model makes Ards the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Moyola Park. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Moyola Park vs Ards?
A very open match: only 71 Elo points separate Moyola Park (1,271) and Ards (1,342).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Moyola Park have 4 wins, 1 draws and 10 defeats; Ards have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Annagh United(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ballinamallard United(home) | 2-0 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Strabane Athletic(home) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dundela(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Dungannon Swifts(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Loughgall(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Warrenpoint Town(away) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Dundela(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Glenavon FC(away) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Carrick Rangers(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Moyola Park win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Ards win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2025 | Moyola Park 1-3 Ards | Irish Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Moyola Park score 1.3 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Ards score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moyola Park | 1.3 | 1.8 | 3 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Ards | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Moyola Park sit 11th in Championship (4 points from 4 matches) and Ards sit 5th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ards | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | Ards | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 50 | 46 | 43 |
| 8 | Ards | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 56 | 51 | 52 |
| 11 | Moyola Park | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Moyola Park vs Ards?
- The Footlab model makes Ards the favourite at 38%, against 25% for a draw and 36% for Moyola Park.
- Where and when is Moyola Park vs Ards played?
- Moyola Park vs Ards is played on September 19, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Mill Meadow, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.