MP vs JäPS: prediction and stats
YkkösliigaGroup StageKick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Mikkelin Urheilupuisto, Mikkeli
The Footlab AI model makes MP the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for JäPS. The most likely score is 1-1. If MP wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,220 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 11, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win MP vs JäPS?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate MP (1,545) and JäPS (1,528).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for MP vs JäPS
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
MP
4-3-3- 16S. Obioha
- 28A. Tervaniemi
- 15S. Stenius
- 26A. Kuek
- 6T. Afshari
- 44N. Forsell
- 4V. Laiho
- 7A. Chishima
- 97A. Traore
- 42A. Ring
- 22J. Uronen
JäPS
4-3-3- 9A. Ristola
- 15O. Dahlfors
- 21C. Katashira
- 19H. Kuosa
- 8R. Heidari
- 17V. Ketonen
- 41J. Salo
- 14R. Selander
- 20H. Ölander
- 4J. Nikki
- 36T. Valtonen
Computed on October 11, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, MP have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; JäPS have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | KäPa(away) | 1-1 | Ykkösliiga |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Kooteepee(away) | 1-1 | Ykkösliiga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | JIPPO(home) | 1-0 | Ykkösliiga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | SJK Akatemia(home) | 1-1 | Ykkösliiga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Haka(away) | 2-0 | Ykkösliiga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | JIPPO(home) | 0-4 | Ykkösliiga |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Klubi-04(away) | 1-2 | Ykkösliiga |
| Sep 18, 2026 | EIF(home) | 1-0 | Ykkösliiga |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Kooteepee(away) | 0-3 | Ykkösliiga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | SJK Akatemia(away) | 3-2 | Ykkösliiga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 MP win, 2 draws, 3 JäPS wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | JäPS 1-0 MP | Ykkösliiga |
| May 22, 2026 | JäPS 0-2 MP | Ykkösliiga |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MP 1-1 JäPS | Ykköscup |
| Aug 30, 2024 | JäPS 4-0 MP | Ykkösliiga |
| Jul 17, 2024 | JäPS 1-1 MP | Ykkösliiga |
| May 19, 2024 | MP 0-3 JäPS | Ykkösliiga |
How many goals should we expect?
MP score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; JäPS score 0.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MP | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| JäPS | 0.9 | 1.6 | 6 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
MP sit 7th in Ykkösliiga (29 points from 25 matches) and JäPS sit 5th (35 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | JäPS | 25 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 23 | 36 | 35 |
| 7 | MP | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 27 | 35 | 29 |
A question about MP vs JäPS?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for MP vs JäPS?
- The Footlab AI model makes MP the favourite at 44%, against 27% for a draw and 29% for JäPS.
- Where and when is MP vs JäPS played?
- MP vs JäPS is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Mikkelin Urheilupuisto, in the Ykkösliiga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.