MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda FC: prediction and stats
NB IRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Hidegkuti Nándor Stadion, Budapest
The Footlab model makes MTK Budapest the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Kisvarda FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda FC?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate MTK Budapest (1,807) and Kisvarda FC (1,751).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, MTK Budapest have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Kisvarda FC have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nyiregyhaza(home) | 2-1 | NB I |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ujpest(away) | 1-1 | NB I |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Puskas Academy(home) | 2-3 | NB I |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Budapest Honved(away) | 3-3 | NB I |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Zalaegerszegi TE(home) | 3-0 | NB I |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Debreceni VSC(home) | 0-0 | NB I |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Nyiregyhaza(away) | 1-2 | NB I |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ujpest(home) | 2-4 | NB I |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Puskas Academy(away) | 2-0 | NB I |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Budapest Honved(home) | 1-1 | NB I |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 MTK Budapest win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Kisvarda FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | MTK Budapest 2-1 Kisvarda FC | NB I |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Kisvarda FC 2-3 MTK Budapest | NB I |
| Sep 28, 2025 | MTK Budapest 4-0 Kisvarda FC | NB I |
| Apr 2, 2024 | Kisvarda FC 3-2 MTK Budapest | Magyar Kupa |
| Mar 17, 2024 | MTK Budapest 2-1 Kisvarda FC | NB I |
| Nov 25, 2023 | Kisvarda FC 3-1 MTK Budapest | NB I |
Last archived meeting: MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda FC on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
MTK Budapest score 2.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Kisvarda FC score 0.8 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTK Budapest | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
| Kisvarda FC | 0.8 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
MTK Budapest sit 3rd in NB I (8 points from 5 matches) and Kisvarda FC sit 8th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | MTK Budapest | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 8 |
| 8 | Kisvarda FC | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda FC?
- The Footlab model makes MTK Budapest the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Kisvarda FC.
- Where and when is MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda FC played?
- MTK Budapest vs Kisvarda FC is played on September 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Hidegkuti Nándor Stadion, in the NB I.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.