MTK Budapest vs Paks: prediction and stats
NB IRegular Season - 20Kick-off on February 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Hidegkuti Nándor Stadion, Budapest
The Footlab model makes MTK Budapest the favourite at 39%, against 23% for a draw and 38% for Paks. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win MTK Budapest vs Paks?
A very open match: only 83 Elo points separate MTK Budapest (1,782) and Paks (1,864).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, MTK Budapest have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Paks have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nyiregyhaza(home) | 2-1 | NB I |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ujpest(away) | 1-1 | NB I |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Puskas Academy(home) | 2-3 | NB I |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Budapest Honved(away) | 3-3 | NB I |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Zalaegerszegi TE(home) | 3-0 | NB I |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Ujpest(home) | 2-0 | NB I |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Puskas Academy(away) | 2-3 | NB I |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Budapest Honved(home) | 2-2 | NB I |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Zalaegerszegi TE(away) | 2-5 | NB I |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Panathinaikos(away) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 MTK Budapest win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Paks win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | MTK Budapest 0-2 Paks | NB I |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Paks 3-1 MTK Budapest | NB I |
| Aug 24, 2025 | MTK Budapest 2-3 Paks | NB I |
| Apr 11, 2025 | MTK Budapest 1-2 Paks | NB I |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Paks 4-2 MTK Budapest | NB I |
| Dec 3, 2024 | MTK Budapest 3-1 Paks | NB I |
How many goals should we expect?
MTK Budapest score 2.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Paks score 2.5 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTK Budapest | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
| Paks | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2 | 12/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
MTK Budapest sit 4th in NB I (8 points from 5 matches) and Paks sit 6th (7 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | MTK Budapest | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 8 |
| 6 | Paks | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for MTK Budapest vs Paks?
- The Footlab model makes MTK Budapest the favourite at 39%, against 23% for a draw and 38% for Paks.
- Where and when is MTK Budapest vs Paks played?
- MTK Budapest vs Paks is played on February 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Hidegkuti Nándor Stadion, in the NB I.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.