Municipal Liberia vs LD Alajuelense: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónApertura - 15Kick-off on November 4, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Edgardo Baltodano Briceño, Liberia
The Footlab model makes LD Alajuelense the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Municipal Liberia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Municipal Liberia vs LD Alajuelense?
A very open match: only 81 Elo points separate Municipal Liberia (1,760) and LD Alajuelense (1,841).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Municipal Liberia have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; LD Alajuelense have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Deportivo Saprissa(away) | 0-2 | Primera División |
| May 3, 2026 | Deportivo Saprissa(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Apr 26, 2026 | LD Alajuelense(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Sporting San Jose(away) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Apr 18, 2026 | CS Cartagines(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | San Carlos(home) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Firpo(away) | 0-1 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Puntarenas FC(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 10, 2026 | CS Herediano(away) | 3-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Diriangén(away) | 3-1 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Municipal Liberia win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 LD Alajuelense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Municipal Liberia 2-1 LD Alajuelense | Primera División |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Municipal Liberia 3-1 LD Alajuelense | Copa Costa Rica |
| Feb 4, 2026 | LD Alajuelense 0-1 Municipal Liberia | Copa Costa Rica |
| Jan 16, 2026 | LD Alajuelense 2-2 Municipal Liberia | Primera División |
| Dec 14, 2025 | LD Alajuelense 3-0 Municipal Liberia | Primera División |
| Dec 11, 2025 | Municipal Liberia 1-1 LD Alajuelense | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Municipal Liberia vs LD Alajuelense on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Municipal Liberia score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; LD Alajuelense score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Municipal Liberia | 1.4 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| LD Alajuelense | 1.5 | 1.0 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | LD Alajuelense | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Municipal Liberia vs LD Alajuelense?
- The Footlab model makes LD Alajuelense the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Municipal Liberia.
- Where and when is Municipal Liberia vs LD Alajuelense played?
- Municipal Liberia vs LD Alajuelense is played on November 4, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Edgardo Baltodano Briceño, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.