Murang'a SEAL vs Nairobi United: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 18, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)SportPesa Arena, Murang'a
The Footlab model makes Nairobi United the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Murang'a SEAL. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Murang'a SEAL vs Nairobi United?
A very open match: only 88 Elo points separate Murang'a SEAL (1,456) and Nairobi United (1,544).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Murang'a SEAL have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Nairobi United have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Mara Sugar(home) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | Bidco United(away) | 2-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 17, 2026 | GOR Mahia(home) | 1-3 | FKF Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | Homeboyz(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 6, 2026 | Police(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | GOR Mahia(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | Police(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Posta Rangers FC(home) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | Kariobangi Sharks(away) | 0-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 6, 2026 | Tusker(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Murang'a SEAL win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Nairobi United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Murang'a SEAL 2-4 Nairobi United | FKF Premier League |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Nairobi United 1-1 Murang'a SEAL | FKF Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Murang'a SEAL vs Nairobi United on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Murang'a SEAL score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Nairobi United score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murang'a SEAL | 1.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Nairobi United | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Murang'a SEAL sit 8th in FKF Premier League (47 points from 34 matches) and Nairobi United sit 4th (53 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Nairobi United | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 44 | 34 | 53 |
| 8 | Murang'a SEAL | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 42 | 41 | 47 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Murang'a SEAL vs Nairobi United?
- The Footlab model makes Nairobi United the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Murang'a SEAL.
- Where and when is Murang'a SEAL vs Nairobi United played?
- Murang'a SEAL vs Nairobi United is played on September 18, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at SportPesa Arena, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.