Mara Sugar vs AFC Leopards: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 4Kick-off on October 28, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Green Stadium, Awendo
The Footlab AI model makes AFC Leopards the favourite at 38%, against 33% for a draw and 29% for Mara Sugar. The most likely score is 0-0. If AFC Leopards wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,904 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mara Sugar vs AFC Leopards?
AFC Leopards starts as the favourite with a 105-point Elo edge (1,589 vs 1,484).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mara Sugar vs AFC Leopards
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mara Sugar
Not enough data to predict the Mara Sugar lineup.
AFC Leopards
Not enough data to predict the AFC Leopards lineup.
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 11:12 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mara Sugar have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; AFC Leopards have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | Mombasa Elite(home) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | 3K(away) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Murang'a SEAL(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 27, 2026 | GOR Mahia(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mathare United(home) | 0-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | Kenya Police(away) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Bidco United(home) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | APS Bomet(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Homeboyz(away) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Mara Sugar win, 1 draw, 2 AFC Leopards wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | AFC Leopards 2-1 Mara Sugar | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Mara Sugar 2-0 AFC Leopards | FKF Premier League |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Mara Sugar 1-2 AFC Leopards | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 10, 2024 | AFC Leopards 1-1 Mara Sugar | FKF Premier League |
Last archived meeting: AFC Leopards vs Mara Sugar on May 9, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mara Sugar score 0.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; AFC Leopards score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mara Sugar | 0.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| AFC Leopards | 1.4 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mara Sugar sit 2nd in FKF Premier League (4 points from 2 matches) and AFC Leopards sit 4th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mara Sugar | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | AFC Leopards | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
A question about Mara Sugar vs AFC Leopards?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mara Sugar vs AFC Leopards?
- The Footlab AI model makes AFC Leopards the favourite at 38%, against 33% for a draw and 29% for Mara Sugar.
- Where and when is Mara Sugar vs AFC Leopards played?
- Mara Sugar vs AFC Leopards is played on October 28, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Green Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.