NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 11, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda
The Footlab model makes NAC Breda the favourite at 61%, against 21% for a draw and 18% for Jong Utrecht. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht?
NAC Breda starts as the favourite with a 209-point Elo edge (1,792 vs 1,584).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, NAC Breda have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Jong Utrecht have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Jong Ajax(home) | 3-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | VVV Venlo(home) | 0-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | FC OSS(away) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bolton(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | OFI(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Vitesse(home) | 1-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | MVV(away) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund II(away) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 3, 2026 | Werder Bremen II(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Jong Ajax(away) | 2-0 | Eerste Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 NAC Breda win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Jong Utrecht win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2024 | NAC Breda 3-1 Jong Utrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 2, 2023 | Jong Utrecht 1-1 NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie |
| Feb 20, 2023 | Jong Utrecht 4-1 NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 16, 2022 | NAC Breda 3-1 Jong Utrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| Apr 4, 2022 | Jong Utrecht 1-0 NAC Breda | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 19, 2021 | NAC Breda 1-1 Jong Utrecht | Eerste Divisie |
Last archived meeting: NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht on Mar 1, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
NAC Breda score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Jong Utrecht score 1.3 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAC Breda | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Jong Utrecht | 1.3 | 1.8 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
NAC Breda sit 7th in Eerste Divisie (6 points from 3 matches) and Jong Utrecht sit 18th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NAC Breda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 7 | NAC Breda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 18 | Jong Utrecht | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 18 | Jong Utrecht | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht?
- The Footlab model makes NAC Breda the favourite at 61%, against 21% for a draw and 18% for Jong Utrecht.
- Where and when is NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht played?
- NAC Breda vs Jong Utrecht is played on September 11, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Rat Verlegh Stadion, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.