MVV vs Almere City FC: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 11, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)De Geusselt, Maastricht
The Footlab model makes Almere City FC the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for MVV. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win MVV vs Almere City FC?
Almere City FC starts as the favourite with a 167-point Elo edge (1,795 vs 1,628).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, MVV have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Almere City FC have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | FC Volendam(home) | 1-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(away) | 3-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(home) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Patro Eisden(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | KAA Gent II(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Vitesse(away) | 3-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Jong PSV U21(home) | 3-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Den Bosch(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Emmen(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | FC OSS(home) | 8-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 MVV win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Almere City FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | MVV 1-1 Almere City FC | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Almere City FC 4-0 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| May 19, 2023 | Almere City FC 1-0 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 19, 2022 | MVV 1-0 Almere City FC | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 27, 2022 | MVV 0-3 Almere City FC | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 19, 2021 | Almere City FC 0-2 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
How many goals should we expect?
MVV score 1.2 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Almere City FC score 2.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVV | 1.2 | 1.6 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Almere City FC | 2.1 | 1.6 | 2 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
MVV sit 2nd in Eerste Divisie (9 points from 3 matches) and Almere City FC sit 3rd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | MVV | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | MVV | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Almere City FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Almere City FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for MVV vs Almere City FC?
- The Footlab model makes Almere City FC the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for MVV.
- Where and when is MVV vs Almere City FC played?
- MVV vs Almere City FC is played on September 11, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at De Geusselt, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.