Emmen vs De Graafschap: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 11, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)De Oude Meerdijk, Emmen
The Footlab model makes Emmen the favourite at 41%, against 22% for a draw and 37% for De Graafschap. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Emmen vs De Graafschap?
A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate Emmen (1,683) and De Graafschap (1,716).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Emmen have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; De Graafschap have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Jong AZ(home) | 3-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Jong Ajax(away) | 6-4 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Roda(home) | 1-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Almere City FC(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Twente(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | VVV Venlo(away) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Jong AZ(home) | 2-5 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Helmond Sport(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kifisia(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Emmen win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 De Graafschap win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Emmen 1-0 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 5, 2025 | De Graafschap 2-3 Emmen | Eerste Divisie |
| Jan 24, 2025 | De Graafschap 4-0 Emmen | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 25, 2024 | Emmen 3-0 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| May 10, 2024 | Emmen 2-1 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 31, 2023 | De Graafschap 2-0 Emmen | KNVB Beker |
Last archived meeting: Emmen vs De Graafschap on Apr 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Emmen score 1.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; De Graafschap score 2.1 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmen | 1.9 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| De Graafschap | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Emmen sit 1st in Eerste Divisie (9 points from 3 matches) and De Graafschap sit 17th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emmen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 9 |
| 1 | Emmen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 9 |
| 17 | De Graafschap | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| 17 | De Graafschap | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Emmen vs De Graafschap?
- The Footlab model makes Emmen the favourite at 41%, against 22% for a draw and 37% for De Graafschap.
- Where and when is Emmen vs De Graafschap played?
- Emmen vs De Graafschap is played on September 11, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at De Oude Meerdijk, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.