Nardò vs Nocerina: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone HGroup H - 16Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Heffort Sport Village, Parabita
The Footlab AI model makes Nardò the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Nocerina. The most likely score is 1-1. If Nardò wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,905 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nardò vs Nocerina?
A very open match: only 40 Elo points separate Nardò (1,732) and Nocerina (1,772).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Nardò vs Nocerina
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Nardò
Not enough data to predict the Nardò lineup.
Nocerina
Not enough data to predict the Nocerina lineup.
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 09:32 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nardò have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Nocerina have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Brindisi(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Gravina(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 4, 2026 | USD Palmese(away) | 2-4 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Martina Franca(home) | 0-3 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Ischia(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Martina Franca(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Brindisi(home) | 0-1 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Turris(home) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Melfi(away) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 27, 2026 | USD Palmese(home) | 3-0 | Serie D - Girone H |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Nardò win, 1 draw, 4 Nocerina wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2025 | Nocerina 2-0 Nardò | Serie D - Girone H |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Nardò 1-3 Nocerina | Serie D - Girone H |
| Apr 2, 2023 | Nocerina 1-3 Nardò | Serie D - Girone H |
| Nov 20, 2022 | Nardò 2-2 Nocerina | Serie D - Girone H |
| Feb 27, 2022 | Nardò 0-2 Nocerina | Serie D - Girone H |
| Oct 20, 2021 | Nocerina 2-0 Nardò | Serie D - Girone H |
How many goals should we expect?
Nardò score 0.8 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Nocerina score 0.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nardò | 0.8 | 1.2 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Nocerina | 0.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nardò sit 18th in Serie D - Girone H (4 points from 8 matches) and Nocerina sit 8th (13 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Nocerina | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 13 |
| 18 | Nardò | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 4 |
A question about Nardò vs Nocerina?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nardò vs Nocerina?
- The Footlab AI model makes Nardò the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Nocerina.
- Where and when is Nardò vs Nocerina played?
- Nardò vs Nocerina is played on December 13, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Heffort Sport Village, in the Serie D - Girone H.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.