Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 32Kick-off on October 6, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho, Recife, Pernambuco
The Footlab model makes Novorizontino the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Nautico Recife. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino?
Novorizontino starts as the favourite with a 102-point Elo edge (1,958 vs 1,856).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nautico Recife have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Novorizontino have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | São Bernardo(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Ceara(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ponte Preta(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Atletico Goianiense(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Criciuma(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 4-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | America Mineiro(home) | 3-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | CRB(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Juventude(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Londrina(away) | 4-1 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Nautico Recife win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Novorizontino win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2026 | Novorizontino 2-2 Nautico Recife | Serie B |
| Oct 15, 2022 | Novorizontino 6-0 Nautico Recife | Serie B |
| Jul 2, 2022 | Nautico Recife 3-1 Novorizontino | Serie B |
Last archived meeting: Novorizontino vs Nautico Recife on Jun 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nautico Recife score 0.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Novorizontino score 1.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nautico Recife | 0.9 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| Novorizontino | 1.9 | 0.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nautico Recife sit 15th in Serie B (31 points from 24 matches) and Novorizontino sit 4th (40 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Novorizontino | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 39 | 21 | 40 |
| 15 | Nautico Recife | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 28 | 27 | 31 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino?
- The Footlab model makes Novorizontino the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Nautico Recife.
- Where and when is Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino played?
- Nautico Recife vs Novorizontino is played on October 6, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.