Vila Nova vs Cuiaba: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 32Kick-off on October 6, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga, Goiânia, Goiás
The Footlab model makes Vila Nova the favourite at 47%, against 31% for a draw and 22% for Cuiaba. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vila Nova vs Cuiaba?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Vila Nova (1,873) and Cuiaba (1,817).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vila Nova have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Cuiaba have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Operario-PR(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Ponte Preta(home) | 6-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atletico Goianiense(away) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sport Recife(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 27, 2026 | CRB(away) | 0-2 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Goias(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Operario-PR(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Ceara(away) | 3-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Fortaleza EC(home) | 1-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Sport Recife(away) | 1-1 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Vila Nova win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Cuiaba win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2026 | Cuiaba 1-0 Vila Nova | Serie B |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Vila Nova 2-2 Cuiaba | Serie B |
| May 27, 2025 | Cuiaba 1-0 Vila Nova | Serie B |
| May 11, 2024 | Cuiaba 4-2 Vila Nova | Copa Verde |
| Apr 17, 2024 | Vila Nova 2-0 Cuiaba | Copa Verde |
| Mar 22, 2023 | Cuiaba 1-1 Vila Nova | Copa Verde |
How many goals should we expect?
Vila Nova score 1.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Cuiaba score 1.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 33% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vila Nova | 1.4 | 1.0 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Cuiaba | 1.1 | 0.9 | 4 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vila Nova sit 3rd in Serie B (41 points from 24 matches) and Cuiaba sit 12th (33 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Vila Nova | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 35 | 25 | 41 |
| 12 | Cuiaba | 24 | 7 | 12 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 33 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vila Nova vs Cuiaba?
- The Footlab model makes Vila Nova the favourite at 47%, against 31% for a draw and 22% for Cuiaba.
- Where and when is Vila Nova vs Cuiaba played?
- Vila Nova vs Cuiaba is played on October 6, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 33% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.