Nazarenos vs Naval 1893: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 11Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Naval 1893 the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Nazarenos. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nazarenos vs Naval 1893?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Nazarenos (1,761) and Naval 1893 (1,810).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 4 matches in all competitions, Nazarenos have 1 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats; Naval 1893 have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | O Elvas(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Mortágua(away) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Pacos Ferreira(home) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Sourense(home) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Benfica Castelo Branco(away) | 4-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 16, 2026 | UD da Serra(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Vitória de Sernache(home) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Os Marialvas(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
How many goals should we expect?
Nazarenos score 0.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 4; Naval 1893 score 1.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazarenos | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1 | 1/4 | 1/4 |
| Naval 1893 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 4 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nazarenos sit 13th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (0 points from 2 matches) and Naval 1893 sit 5th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Naval 1893 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | Nazarenos | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nazarenos vs Naval 1893?
- The Footlab model makes Naval 1893 the favourite at 41%, against 30% for a draw and 29% for Nazarenos.
- Where and when is Nazarenos vs Naval 1893 played?
- Nazarenos vs Naval 1893 is played on December 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC), in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.