Fazendense vs UD da Serra: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 11Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes UD da Serra the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Fazendense. The most likely score is 1-1. If UD da Serra wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fazendense vs UD da Serra?
UD da Serra starts as the favourite with a 147-point Elo edge (1,949 vs 1,802).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Fazendense vs UD da Serra
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Fazendense
Not enough data to predict the Fazendense lineup.
UD da Serra
Not enough data to predict the UD da Serra lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 08:28 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 11 matches in all competitions, Fazendense have 2 wins, 1 draw and 8 defeats; UD da Serra have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Atlético Malveira(away) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 27, 2026 | FC Alverca II(away) | 0-5 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Ginásio Figueirense(home) | 6-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | O Elvas(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Mortágua(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | O Elvas(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Amora(away) | 4-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Mortágua(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | AD Nogueirense(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Uniao de Pombal(home) | 5-0 | Taça de Portugal |
How many goals should we expect?
Fazendense score 1.3 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 11; UD da Serra score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fazendense | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1 | 6/11 | 8/11 |
| UD da Serra | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 11 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fazendense sit 13th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (1 point from 4 matches) and UD da Serra sit 5th (8 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | UD da Serra | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| 13 | Fazendense | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 1 |
A question about Fazendense vs UD da Serra?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fazendense vs UD da Serra?
- The Footlab AI model makes UD da Serra the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 32% for Fazendense.
- Where and when is Fazendense vs UD da Serra played?
- Fazendense vs UD da Serra is played on December 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC), in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.