Sertanense vs Benfica Castelo Branco: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 11Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Jogos Dr. Marques dos Santos, Sertã
The Footlab AI model makes Sertanense the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Benfica Castelo Branco. The most likely score is 1-1. If Sertanense wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,938 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sertanense vs Benfica Castelo Branco?
On Elo ratings, Sertanense has 1,733 points and Benfica Castelo Branco 1,846.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sertanense vs Benfica Castelo Branco
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sertanense
4-3-3- MM. Emmanuel
- DDiogo Teixeira
- DDavi Barbosa
- 5Tiago Rodrigues
- MMauro Santos
- DDavid Morais
- GGabriel Morais Piçarra
- DDaniel Xavier
- EElvis Landim
- JJoão André Farinha Tomás
- DDaniel Leitão
Benfica Castelo Branco
4-3-3- 85N. Gaspar
- 16A. Vagarinho
- 11Sacra
- 23G. Isaias
- 6David Peres
- 21J. Cruz
- 2Pedro Vieira
- 4P. Correia
- 15F. Celestino
- 22D. Preto
- 1D. Romana
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sertanense have 2 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats; Benfica Castelo Branco have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Os Marialvas(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 27, 2026 | O Elvas(away) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Atlético Malveira(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Alcains(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Mortágua(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Mortágua(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 13, 2026 | AD Nogueirense(home) | 2-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | FC Alverca II(away) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Fátima(away) | 1-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Naval 1893(home) | 1-4 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Sertanense wins, 4 draws, 2 Benfica Castelo Branco wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2025 | Benfica Castelo Branco 1-0 Sertanense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Jan 5, 2025 | Sertanense 0-0 Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Mar 24, 2024 | Benfica Castelo Branco 1-1 Sertanense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Dec 10, 2023 | Sertanense 1-2 Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Feb 26, 2023 | Sertanense 1-1 Benfica Castelo Branco | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Nov 13, 2022 | Benfica Castelo Branco 1-1 Sertanense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: Benfica Castelo Branco vs Sertanense on Apr 13, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Sertanense score 0.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Benfica Castelo Branco score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sertanense | 0.7 | 1.1 | 3 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
| Benfica Castelo Branco | 1.3 | 1.5 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sertanense sit 12th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (2 points from 4 matches) and Benfica Castelo Branco sit 8th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Benfica Castelo Branco | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
A question about Sertanense vs Benfica Castelo Branco?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sertanense vs Benfica Castelo Branco?
- The Footlab AI model makes Sertanense the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Benfica Castelo Branco.
- Where and when is Sertanense vs Benfica Castelo Branco played?
- Sertanense vs Benfica Castelo Branco is played on December 13, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Jogos Dr. Marques dos Santos, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.