Nazarenos vs UD da Serra: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 9Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes UD da Serra the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Nazarenos. The most likely score is 1-1. If UD da Serra wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.9% of the 5,215 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nazarenos vs UD da Serra?
A very open match: only 88 Elo points separate Nazarenos (1,790) and UD da Serra (1,878).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Nazarenos vs UD da Serra
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Nazarenos
Not enough data to predict the Nazarenos lineup.
UD da Serra
4-3-3- 9I. Nabais
- 17D. Gameiro
- 11Vieirinha
- 23G. Isaias
- 10M. Pereira
- 20W. Costa
- 3T. F. Justino G.
- 6R. Rodrigues
- 92B. Castro
- 2T. Neto
- 1D. Santos
Computed on November 9, 2026 at 11:36 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 11 matches in all competitions, Nazarenos have 3 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; UD da Serra have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Fazendense(away) | 3-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Sertanense(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Fátima(away) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Os Marialvas(home) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Fátima(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Os Marialvas(away) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Atlético Malveira(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Vitoria Setubal(away) | 1-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Oct 11, 2026 | O Elvas(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
How many goals should we expect?
Nazarenos score 0.8 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 11; UD da Serra score 1.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazarenos | 0.8 | 1.6 | 2 | 4/11 | 6/11 |
| UD da Serra | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1 | 13/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 11 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nazarenos sit 13th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (5 points from 7 matches) and UD da Serra sit 5th (12 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | UD da Serra | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 12 |
| 13 | Nazarenos | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 5 |
A question about Nazarenos vs UD da Serra?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nazarenos vs UD da Serra?
- The Footlab AI model makes UD da Serra the favourite at 49%, against 27% for a draw and 24% for Nazarenos.
- Where and when is Nazarenos vs UD da Serra played?
- Nazarenos vs UD da Serra is played on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC), in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.