O Elvas vs AD Nogueirense: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C · Matchday 9Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo Domingos Carrilho Patalino, Elvas
The Footlab AI model makes O Elvas the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for AD Nogueirense. The most likely score is 1-1. If O Elvas wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,580 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win O Elvas vs AD Nogueirense?
O Elvas starts as the favourite with a 122-point Elo edge (1,912 vs 1,790).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for O Elvas vs AD Nogueirense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
O Elvas
Not enough data to predict the O Elvas lineup.
AD Nogueirense
Not enough data to predict the AD Nogueirense lineup.
Computed on November 13, 2026 at 05:43 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, O Elvas have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; AD Nogueirense have 1, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | FC Alverca II(away) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Naval 1893(home) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Benfica Castelo Branco(away) | 3-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 11, 2026 | UD da Serra(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Sertanense(home) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Mortágua(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Oliveira Hospital(away) | 3-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 25, 2026 | FC Alverca II(away) | 0-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Naval 1893(home) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Benfica Castelo Branco(away) | 3-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
How many goals should we expect?
O Elvas score 1.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; AD Nogueirense score 1.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O Elvas | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| AD Nogueirense | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2 | 6/12 | 5/12 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
O Elvas sit 2nd in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (16 points from 7 matches) and AD Nogueirense sit 9th (8 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | O Elvas | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 16 |
| 9 | AD Nogueirense | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 13 | 8 |
A question about O Elvas vs AD Nogueirense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for O Elvas vs AD Nogueirense?
- The Footlab AI model makes O Elvas the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for AD Nogueirense.
- Where and when is O Elvas vs AD Nogueirense played?
- O Elvas vs AD Nogueirense is played on November 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Domingos Carrilho Patalino, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.