UD da Serra vs Sertanense: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group CGroup C - 10Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo da Portela, Santa Catarina da Serra
The Footlab AI model makes UD da Serra the favourite at 65%, against 24% for a draw and 11% for Sertanense. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,447 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win UD da Serra vs Sertanense?
UD da Serra starts as the favourite with a 156-point Elo edge (1,934 vs 1,778).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for UD da Serra vs Sertanense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
UD da Serra
Not enough data to predict the UD da Serra lineup.
Sertanense
4-3-3- MM. Emmanuel
- DDiogo Teixeira
- DDavi Barbosa
- 5Tiago Rodrigues
- MMauro Santos
- DDavid Morais
- GGabriel Morais Piçarra
- DDaniel Xavier
- EElvis Landim
- JJoão André Farinha Tomás
- DDaniel Leitão
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 01:21 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UD da Serra have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Sertanense have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | O Elvas(away) | 2-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Amora(away) | 4-3 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Mortágua(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 6, 2026 | AD Nogueirense(away) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Uniao de Pombal(home) | 5-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Os Marialvas(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 27, 2026 | O Elvas(away) | 0-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Atlético Malveira(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Alcains(away) | 0-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Mortágua(home) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 UD da Serra win, 0 draws, 1 Sertanense win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2023 | UD da Serra 2-1 Sertanense | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
| Sep 25, 2022 | Sertanense 1-0 UD da Serra | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C |
Last archived meeting: UD da Serra vs Sertanense on Jan 22, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
UD da Serra score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Sertanense score 0.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UD da Serra | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Sertanense | 0.7 | 1.1 | 3 | 7/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
UD da Serra sit 5th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C (8 points from 4 matches) and Sertanense sit 12th (2 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | UD da Serra | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| 12 | Sertanense | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 2 |
A question about UD da Serra vs Sertanense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for UD da Serra vs Sertanense?
- The Footlab AI model makes UD da Serra the favourite at 65%, against 24% for a draw and 11% for Sertanense.
- Where and when is UD da Serra vs Sertanense played?
- UD da Serra vs Sertanense is played on December 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo da Portela, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group C.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.