NEC vs UPDF: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on November 3, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)MTN Omondi Stadium, Kampala
The Footlab AI model makes NEC the favourite at 63%, against 24% for a draw and 13% for UPDF. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,680 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win NEC vs UPDF?
NEC starts as the favourite with a 217-point Elo edge (1,504 vs 1,288).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for NEC vs UPDF
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
NEC
Not enough data to predict the NEC lineup.
UPDF
Not enough data to predict the UPDF lineup.
Computed on October 27, 2026 at 01:45 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, NEC have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; UPDF have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | BUL(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Kigezi HomeBoyz(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 8, 2026 | Express(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 15, 2026 | URA(home) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Mbarara City(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | BUL(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Express(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Maroons(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Police(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 1, 2026 | Entebbe UPPC(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 NEC wins, 3 draws, 0 UPDF wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | NEC 1-0 UPDF | Premier League |
| Dec 16, 2025 | UPDF 0-0 NEC | Premier League |
| Apr 4, 2025 | UPDF 0-0 NEC | Premier League |
| Sep 24, 2024 | NEC 1-0 UPDF | Premier League |
| Feb 13, 2024 | UPDF 2-2 NEC | Premier League |
| Oct 20, 2023 | NEC 2-0 UPDF | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
NEC score 1.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; UPDF score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC | 1.1 | 0.7 | 10 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| UPDF | 0.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
NEC sit 3rd in Premier League (14 points from 7 matches) and UPDF sit 10th (8 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | NEC | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 14 |
| 10 | UPDF | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 |
A question about NEC vs UPDF?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for NEC vs UPDF?
- The Footlab AI model makes NEC the favourite at 63%, against 24% for a draw and 13% for UPDF.
- Where and when is NEC vs UPDF played?
- NEC vs UPDF is played on November 3, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at MTN Omondi Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.